A Third Party on the Rise: Anti-establishment but not Populist

Taiwan's presidential election in 2024 is an open race with the ruling DPP seeking a third term with their nominee William Lai. If voters were to vote today rather than in January Lai would have a higher chance of winning. However, Ko Wen-je, a former Taipei mayor who represents the Taiwan People's Party, is gaining momentum and becoming a serious challenger to Lai. By contrast, the KMT has been struggling to regain second place since nominating Ho Yu-ih, the mayor of New Taipei. Despite the fact that Ko and the TPP are considered "anti-establishment", they are not simply angry populists. Further, the DPP is unlikely to win the election simply by appealing to anti-China sentiment. With the looming threat of war with China, all candidates will have to embrace the status quo, which is where the majority of Taiwan voters stand.

Kai-Ping Huang is Associate Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University. Her research interests include party systems, formal institutions, and democratization focusing on East and Southeast Asia.